NFL Picks: Last Week and This Week

I went 4 of 6 correct in last weekend's NFL wild card games -- I did not pick the 49ers to upset the Cowboys, and I did pick the Cardinals to upset the Rams.

For week 20, I've also picked one upset: I give the Cincinnati Bengals a 53% chance of beating the Tennessee Titans.

My other picks are all at 100%: The Packers will beat the 49ers, the Buccaneers will beat the Rams, and the Chiefs will beat the Bills.

At present, I've got a score of 271.7 points and am in the top 24% of players in FiveThirtyEight's NFL Forecasting Game. Throughout the game, I've ranked, IIRC, as highly as the top 1% and as far down as 28th percentile. Early on, I outperformed FiveThirtyEight's model, but as the season continued that model kicked my ass in a big way. It currently sits at 647.8 points, which puts it in the 91st percentile.

Update, ~5pm 01/19/22: On re-thinking, I'm picking another upset. Well, not really an upset, as you'll see. Instead of 100% on the Buccaneers to beat the Rams, I'm at 53% on the Rams to beat the Buccaneers.

Why I was inclined to to go 100% Bucs:

1. I have a "never bet against Tom Brady unless he's playing against the Chiefs" rule that usually stands me in good stead; and
2. I fucking hate the Rams (I moved to Florida from St. Louis, a town the Rams got over on big-time then tried to screw).

What changed my mind:

1. The numbers.

The Rams and the Bucs have played each other 27 times.

Of those 27 games, the Rams have won 18.

Including four of the last five, two of the last three, and both of the last two.

Those last two games are the only two games with the Rams that the Bucs have ever played with Brady as quarterback. 

Granted, that last contest took place when several Tampa Bay players were out of action on the COVID-19 list (which was why I picked LA that time, too). But the history and the trend, especially Brady being 0 for 2 in that match-up, makes me think FiveThirtyEight's model is incorrect in giving the Bucs a 68% chance of winning. I'd rather Tampa Bay won, but I kind of expect the Rams to.