NFL Picks: I Should Have Gone Bigger

The up side: I picked three of four games correctly.

The down side: I still lost 88.4 points because I had the Packers at 100% to beat the 49ers, for a 150 point loss. While I also had the Chiefs at 100% to beat the Bills for a 50 point gain, I only had the Bengals at 53% to beat the Titans and the Rams at 53% to beat the Buccaneers, only picking up 5.8 points each on those two games. If I'd gone 100% on all my picks, I'd have ended in positive points territory.

Second up side: FiveThirtyEight's model only picked one of four (Chiefs vs. Bills) correctly, for a loss of 116.4 points. So I beat the model this week, anyway. My cumulative score is 183.3 points, top 28% of players. The model's cumulative score is 531.4 points, though.

So, we're down to the conference championships, and I'm going big on both -- 100% on the Chiefs to beat the Bengals for the AFC championship, 100% on the Rams to beat the 49ers for the NFC championship.