Four Safe SCOTUS Predictions

I don't have any unsafe predictions to make in the matter of Associate Justice Stephen Breyer's replacement. Here are the safe ones:

1. Yes, Joe Biden will nominate a black woman. Why? Well, because he promised to on the campaign trail, because breaking that promise might depress black voter turnout for Democrats this November and in 2024, and because keeping it might drive higher black voter turnout for Democrats this November and in 2024. It's a stupid criterion for the position, but entirely politically understandable.
2. No, that black woman won't be Kamala Harris. She doesn't want a lifetime supply of black robes, she wants the Oval Office. Besides, she might be the only black woman in America whose name isn't "Angela Davis" who couldn't get confirmed, especially if she did the right thing and recused herself from her tie-breaking role in the Senate.
3. No matter who that black woman is, or what her record looks like, some Republicans will insist that she's actually Angela Davis in disguise and that if she's confirmed the capital will be relocated to Havana, abortion will be legalized through the 57th trimester, etc.
4. Any plausible nominee -- in fact, probably any nominee other than Angela Davis -- will receive unanimous Democratic support (yes, including Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema) and almost certainly at least a handful of Republican votes for confirmation.

Who will the nominee be?

The top of the media short list seems to be Ketanji Brown Jackson, who was recently confirmed to the DC Court of Appeals. That means she's already been throught the "vetting" process that also takes place with SCOTUS nominees.

My money is on J. Michelle Childs, for three reasons:

1. She's from South Carolina (where she sits on a federal bench already), sort of (she was born in Detroit, but has been in South Carolina for more than 30 of her 55 years). Unlike a DC Appeals Court judge, a southern nominee sitting on a southern court is good politics for an administration that's often criticized for being too Beltway Establishment.
2. Again, she's from South Carolina, where Joe Biden made his promise to nominate a black woman, presumably as a favor to Childs's patron/booster, US Senator Jim Clyburn. Biden may not need South Carolina to win the 2024 Democratic nomination, but Clyburn helps whip black voter turnout across the south and Biden wants to be on his good side. In 2024, it might make a difference in North Carolina, where Trump beat Biden by less than 1.5% in 2020. And in Georgia. And in Florida.
3. In the "outside the Beltway Establishment" vein -- and in Joe Biden's "working class guy, went to law school at night, common man" wheelhouse -- she's not an Ivy Leaguer. "Public" school educated, graduate of the University of South Carolina's law school, state-level trial judge. When it comes to SCOTUS prospects, that's about as close to "working class" as you're gonna find.

But I could be wrong.