Senate Prediction Update

Quinnipiac on Georgia: Warnock Opens Up 10 Point Lead Over Walker.

To garner a majority in the US Senate, Republicans need a net gain of only one seat.

But there are only five seats in obvious contention -- the others look reasonably likely to stay in the same partisan column as before -- and at the moment the Republicans hold two of those five seats and the Democrats hold three.

Pennsylvania looks likely to switch from Republican to Democrat.

Wisconsin looks likely to switch from Republican to Democrat.

Arizona looks likely to stay Democrat.

And now Georgia looks likely to stay Democrat.

That leaves Nevada, where the most recent polling is from May and has incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto up by 21-23 points over the two plausible Republican nominees.

So ceteris paribus, if the election was held today, the Republicans would probably lose a net two seats.

Is ceteris pribus? That is, could any leaning/"safe" seats move into "tossup" territory?

Well, sure. But it's not looking that great for the Republicans there, either.

Ohio "leaned Republican" (as it already was) until JD Vance got the GOP nomination. As of May, the polling was mixed with Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan within a couple of points of each other.

In Missouri, even disgraced former governor and accused wife-beater Eric Greitens is polling well against all likely Democratic nominees to succeed Republican Roy Blunt ... but anti-Trump Republicans are trying to put an attorney (whose latest position has been as an investigator for the January 6 exploitation committee) on the ballot as an "independent." So the Show-Me state could move from "safe Republican" to "dicey" as well.

Four-and-a-half months is a long time in politics, but I don't think it's long enough for Republicans to recover from a two-seat loss to a one-seat gain, especially since things are moving in the opposite direction.

So I'll make my first firm "my story and I'm sticking to it, call me on this if I was wrong" prediction: The Republicans will not come out of the November elections with 51 or more seats.