Monday, October 05, 2020

The Conventional Wisdom ...


... is that COVID-19 pretty much wraps it up for Donald Trump's prospects of winning on November 3. He's hospitalized, many of his aides and campaign proxies are also infected, etc., dramatically reducing his ability to run a campaign with less than a month to go before the election. At least one poll has Joe Biden up eight points in Arizona, and although I haven't gone looking, I suspect Biden is opening up leads elsewhere as well.

But I'm not sure this thing is over yet. The thing about chaos is that it produces unpredictable results.

One thing the COVID-19 stuff does affect is my timeline for putting up a "final prediction" that I'm willing to stake my "correctly predicted 48 states out of 50, twice in a row" reputation on. I was planning on October 15, but now I want to see what happens when Trump comes out of quarantine (assuming he lives), so probably October 24 or so.


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