Friday, December 06, 2019

Update on my Impeachment "Investment"


I'm the proud owner of 53 shares of "yes" to the question "Will Donald Trump be impeached by year-end 2019?" on PredictIt.

I paid an average of 37 cents each for those shares. They're currently at 70 cents.

I've got a sell offer in at 79 cents per share.

Why am I not riding it out to the full dollar per share on a successful impeachment vote in the House before December 31?

Because there's still some hypothetical risk that the vote will fail, or for some reason won't occur at all, or will occur after December 31.

I think that risk is minimal -- the only event I can think of offhand that might stop or significantly delay the vote is a mass casualty attack on the US itself or on US military forces in areas of the world where they have no business being -- but I have to acknowledge that the risk exists.

That being the case, I figure that doubling my money or better is a reasonable outcome -- not too risky, not too greedy -- so I picked the first prime number above 74 (prime numbers are a thing with me) and set my shares to sell at that number.

Maybe I'll change my mind before it gets there. If it gets there. Or maybe not.

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