Monday, December 09, 2019

'Round Midnight ...

... the share price of "yes" "Will Donald Trump be impeached by year-end 2019?" hit 79 cents and my sell order went through. I deposited a little less than $20 at PredictIt to buy those shares; now I have a balance of $40.01 in my account.

I thought about rolling the whole amount over to "no" shares in "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment in his first term?" but those are already selling at 88 cents so there's not much profit to be made.

I haven't found another bet to make yet.

I'm tempted to buy "no" on Pete Buttigieg for "Who will win the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?" but it's at 64 cents and I'm not completely certain -- I expect something to come out about his NDA-covered consulting work that will crater his popularity between now and mid-January, but I could be wrong.

I'm also tempted to buy "yes" on Bernie Sanders, but I'm concerned he'll keel over with another coronary before February and not get up and keep going next time.

I'll probably go with "yes" on "Will the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucuses also win New Hampshire?" if the price doesn't jump before I make up my mind.

We'll see.

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