Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Textured Vegetable Protein and the 2020 Presidential Election


Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Wisconsin have the largest soybean plantations in size. The states that produce the highest yields are Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana. [Source: The Daily Records]

Trump's trade wars are socking it to soybean farmers.

In the 2016 presidential election, he won Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, and Indiana.

He won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin pretty damn narrowly, and Iowa by not that much.

Those three states have a combined 36 electoral votes.

Winning those three states in 2016 would have put Hillary Clinton within five electoral votes of Trump.

Prediction #1: Trump won't win any states in 2020 that he didn't win in 2016.

The question is not whether he can pick up any new states. He can't.

The question is how many of (and which) states he won't win a second time.

Prediction #2: Wisconsin goes blue in 2020.
Prediction #3: Florida goes blue in 2020.

Could I be wrong? Yes. But I don't think I am. Wisconsin I am 99.x% sure on, and it will take one king-hell voter suppression effort (definitely possible!) for the GOP to hold onto Florida.

Wisconsin and Florida would get the Democratic nominee to 266 electoral votes. Pennsylvania OR Iowa (OR Michigan OR Ohio) would put that nominee over the top.

Trump seems to be doing his damnedest to drive farm states into the Democratic column. Some of them are probably just too GOP-"safe" for that to happen. But some aren't.

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