Saturday, March 26, 2016

My Latest Political Bet


I decided to get out of my Joe Biden positions at PredictIt. As you may or may not remember, I reported to you awhile back that I had invested $10 in Biden -- 100 shares, purchased at five cents per share, of Biden to be the Democratic nominee, and 250 shares, purchased at 2 cents per share, of Biden to win the November presidential election (these shares can be bought and sold right up until a deadline near the specific event; when the event takes place they pay off at a buck per share if you're right, you lose your money if you're wrong).

Last week, I sold the 250 "Biden is elected president" shares for 3 cents each, turning my $5 into $7.50 (minus a quarter in fees).

Today, I sold the 100 "Biden is the nominee" shares for 4 cents each, taking a $1 loss.

I did both more out of boredom than anything. I've been checking my PredictIt portfolio pretty much every day and things never seemed to swing more than about that much in either direction, so time to move on with a $1.25 net gain -- 12.5% in 2 1/2 months.

I just invested $10.92 in 14 shares of "Sanders to win the Hawaii caucus" at 78 cents. Sure, that will just make me a little less than three bucks after fees, but from where I'm sitting it looks like a pretty good bet. And if I'm right I'll be up 40% instead of 12.5%.

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